(Este artículo también se encuentra en español)
While the media speculates about when Pope Francis will make his first trip to Argentina, his homeland, it begs another question: Is it possible that he may never visit Buenos Aires again? It is.
Habemus Papam
In March 2020, it will be six years since that "habemus papam" on the main balcony of San Pietro, broadcasted live worldwide.
The then-unknown Archbishop of Buenos Aires became the first Latin Pope. That night, Jorge Mario Bergoglio bid farewell to his identity forever and presented himself to humanity as Francis.
His name had already been mentioned as a candidate to become the Holy Father in 2005 during the conclave that ultimately proclaimed Joseph Ratzinger as the new head of the Catholic Church.
However, during the next bishops' conclave to choose a new pope, no one, not even in Argentina, imagined that Bergoglio had any chance.
It is said that not even the Archbishop of Argentina himself believed in his chances. The man who traveled to Rome after Ratzinger's resignation had asked his newspaper delivery person not to stop sending newspapers to his home, as he would return "soon." However, he never set foot in Buenos Aires again... Will he ever?
While all Argentine media outlets resurrect the hypothesis of an imminent papal visit to his homeland every two weeks, from this column, I venture to predict that Francis will never return to Argentina.
The Argentine 'grieta' (discord)
In the country at the end of the world, there are no grays. Everything is experienced intensely, and being lukewarm has become the ultimate insult. Lukewarm is someone who does not vehemently express a certain political stance.
Bergoglio was a critic of the Governments of Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner during his archbishopric. A tense relationship in a country that is secular by law but religious in practice.
Disputes over homosexual marriage and agricultural sector taxes, among other issues, led the late Argentine president to describe the archbishop as the "spiritual leader of the opposition."
The relationship between the Argentine government and the Church completely ruptured when former President Kirchner decided to stop attending the Te Deum, held every May 25th at the Buenos Aires Cathedral to commemorate the first national government. The decision was made by his wife and successor in power.
Néstor Kirchner: "Our God is for everyone, but be careful because the devil also reaches everyone, those who wear pants and those who wear cassocks"
However, everything changed when Bergoglio was elected Supreme Pontiff.
Bergoglio vs. Francis
It's not simply a name change. Francis immediately assumed his role as head of state and world leader to leave behind Bergoglio's local agenda.
In a few months, the Argentine discord (grieta in Spanish) also consumed Francis. Those who saw Bergoglio as a leader began to see Francis as a populist Pope, as praise from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner grew, along with her visits to the Vatican.
Both went from avoiding each other as much as possible in Buenos Aires to numerous meetings with smiling faces in the Holy See
Now, the two leaders could debate on a global agenda, leaving behind local disagreements and everyday issues: hunger, armed conflicts, and the capitalist system. The global inequality displaced the Argentine debate on taxes or same-gender marriage.
On the other hand, Cristina Kirchner understood that her interlocutor was now a global figure, a head of state, but not an equal. He is a leader for the entire catholic planet who is, for the first time in history, Latin, and even better, Argentine.
From the very beginning, Francis was also aware of this new role that history had assigned him. He traded seriousness for fraternal smiles, and in a few months, he renewed the closeness of the Church -at least in protocol- with the people, a relationship that had frozen with Benedict XVI.
With the beginning of Mauricio Macri's presidency in Argentina, odious comparisons began: that Francis smiled more when he met Cristina, that the meetings with Macri were shorter.
The truth is, just as Cristina Kirchner had recognized in Francis a world leader, leaving behind any differences, Macri never made that distinction and continued to address a local leader, an equal, or even a subject.
Nevertheless, it's easy to imagine who would be more interesting to talk to about sustainability, armed conflicts, economic wars, social inequality, and the challenges of humanity.
Macri never tires of making football jokes whenever he meets a world leader. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, and Vladimir Putin were just a few of his victims who were uncomfortable with Macri's sporting references, the former president of Boca Juniors club.
Latin American Tour
In mid-2013, Francis traveled to Brazil, and it was then that the first hope of a visit to Argentina was awakened. The 2,500 kilometers separating Rio de Janeiro from Buenos Aires seemed like a reasonable distance to reunite with his own.
I am looking forward to next July in Rio de Janeiro! I hope to see all of you in that great Brazilian city!
— Pope Francis (@Pontifex) March 24, 2013
However, the Supreme Pontiff chose to lead the World Youth Day -with three million attendees, including Brazilians, Argentines, Chileans, and even Americans and Italians- and return to Fiumicino.
In July 2015, Francis accepted invitations from Rafael Correa, Evo Morales, and Horacio Cartes to visit Ecuador, Bolivia, and Paraguay.
At that time, Argentina was in the midst of an electoral campaign. An intense prelude to the elections that would pit Kirchnerism against the Cambiemos party (Macri) and would mark a profound political shift in the South American country: on December 10 of that year, Mauricio Macri would assume the presidency.
The then-official candidate for the presidency of Argentina, Daniel Scioli, mentioned on every occasion that Pope Francis was his leader.
Francis chose not to visit Argentina for the second time to avoid being used by any candidate and to not interfere in local politics
Some months after that tour, in September of that year, Francis landed in Cuba and the United States, where he highlighted the improvement in relations between the two nations.
As the United States and Cuba drew closer, the Argentine grieta further separated Francis from his homeland.
In February 2016, already with Macri at the Casa Rosada, Francis made an apostolic trip to Mexico. With the change of power, the Government of the end of the world showed its incipient interest in realizing the first visit of the Argentine Pope.
A year later -September 2017- Francis visited Colombia to support the peace agreement signed with the FARC and the reconciliation of Colombians.
In early 2018, he traveled to Chile and Peru, a bitter tour marked by allegations of pedophilia within the Chilean Church and the scant participation of Chileans in the masses and meetings led by the Holy Father.
In January 2019, his most recent visit to Latin America took place: he traveled to Panama to participate in World Youth Day.
In five years, Pope Francis visited all the neighboring countries of Argentina - with the exception of Uruguay - but never set foot in his homeland
Every time he flew over Argentine airspace, the Vatican sent an official greeting to the Argentine president, as is customary in Holy See protocol.
Previous Popes' Travels
The world don't call Francis 'the traveling pope' just because there was John Paul II before him. During his pontificate, Karol Józef Wojtyła visited around 130 countries.
The Argentine Supreme Pontiff has already traveled extensively around the world: more than 35 countries in five years.
He is the first Pope to visit Sri Lanka, in addition to having traveled to destinations such as Morocco, Thailand, Japan, Mozambique, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Kenya, Uganda, and South Korea, among others.
His predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict XVI, visited their homeland on several occasions
Benedict XVI returned to Germany three times, while John Paul II visited Poland nine times.
Of course, neither of them was a victim of political disputes in their country. The difference between the multiple visits of their predecessors and the absolute absence of trips by Francis to his home speaks volumes about different scenarios.
Francis has always expressed his desire to visit Argentina but has justified postponements due to his busy schedule. However, beyond his international commitments, Francis remains his own boss and has the final choice.
When Would Be the Ideal Time to Return to Argentina?
Argentina has just held elections that saw Alberto Fernández emerge as the future president. Just like in 2015, it is understandable that Francis did not visit the country during the electoral campaign.
The problem now is that with the change of government -and the return of Kirchnerism- in the event of a visit by Francis, the first interpretation will be that the Pope waited for Macri to leave power to make his first visit.
Undoubtedly, a hypothetical trip by the Pope will not materialize in 2020, during the first year of Fernández's administration
Although -once again- Argentine media outlets revived the hypothesis of a probable visit, Pope Francis himself dismissed the possibility in a message to the Diocese of Río Gallegos (Patagonia), which on April 1, 2020, will celebrate the 500 years of the first mass in Argentina.
"You are preparing to celebrate the 500 years of the first mass in Argentine territory, in San Julián. I accompany you from here," said the Pope.
"Of course, I would have liked to be there, but it is not possible yet because this year I am full of travels," he concluded.
A visit in the middle of the president-elect's term -2021- would coincide with Argentina's midterm elections, the parliamentary elections. This would put the world Catholic figure in front of a new use of his figure by different candidates, something that Francis wants to avoid as much as possible.
Thus, the closest moment to realize the long-awaited return would be only after October 2021.
However, there is another problem: how long will Pope Francis be Pope?
The End of Pope Francis' Papacy
Francisco will turn 83 on December 17, 2019. No one can deny that he has been one of the most active popes in recent memory.
Surprise visits to Roman shops, hospitals, public appearances, endless audiences in St. Peter's Square, and conversations with thousands of people have taken a toll on the Argentine's health.
Francis has hinted since the beginning of his papacy that he could not imagine leading the Church until the end of his days and that he would follow the example of his predecessor: resign when he no longer had the strength.
Benedict XVI announced his resignation at the age of 85, the age Francis will be at the ideal time to visit Argentina: after October 2021.
Could Pope Francis Never Return to His Homeland?
In case of resignation, the Pope Emeritus is obliged to live in the Vatican and keep the secrets to which he had access*. This is the example of Joseph Ratzinger, who spends his days in a monastery within the Vatican, a few meters from Francis.
Ratzinger -Benedict XVI- never returned to Germany after his resignation. He spends his days playing the piano and going on spiritual retreats. He lives in the company of four laywomen from the Memores Domini community, who help him with household chores and his private secretary.
Francis could only visit Argentina as the Pope in charge of the Church and not as the Pope Emeritus.
This significantly diminishes the chances of Francis returning to his homeland, to his apartment in Buenos Aires from which he left thinking he would return after a few days.
The countdown clock keeps ticking, and everything seems to indicate that the Pope's return to Argentina does not depend on how much the Supreme Pontiff desires it but on the Argentine people themselves.
UPDATE
Benedict XVI returned to Germany in 2020 to say goodbye to his dying brother. After the unavoidable visit, he returned to the Vatican.
*This information was confirmed at the time by official Vatican sources, but Benedict XVI's trip contradicts it.
